Thanks to the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) who turned out to be buyers in the Indian Stock Market (according to the Moneycontrol Data) for the month that has just ended. On the other hand, Domestic Investors (DIIs) has sold a minimal amount in August 2022.

The other factors that help the Nifty Index to continue its rally are –

• Good monsoon across the country,
• Stable Crude Oil prices,
• Steps taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to control Inflation,
• Various steps taken by the Indian Government on the Economic front,
• Better economic condition of the country as compared to other nations,

The Way Forward – September 2022

Since the new month (September 2022) has just started, index and option traders would love to know where the Nifty ends at the end of the month; will it end in green yet again or red?

To answer this question again, let’s go through the historical data.

If we study the last ten years’ data, from 2012 to 2021 (in particular the September month) history reveals 50:50 outcomes, where the bulls charged five times and the bears charged five times.

In fact, in these ten years, there were four instances where the Nifty has given more than 2.5% of positive returns (2.8% in 2021, 4.1% in 2019, 6.1% in 2013, and 8.5% in 2012) and only two instances where it fell 2% or more (6.4% in 2018 and 2% in the year 2016).

If we stretch our study further and take last twenty years of data, from 2002 to 2021, history suggests that there have been at least 12 instances where the Nifty index closed in green and as many as 8 instances it closed in the red.

In this period of twenty years, there was 10 times where the Nifty index rose more than 4% (12.5% in 2007, 11.6% in 2010, 9.1% in 2005, 9% in 2009, and 8.5% in the year 2012) whereas it fell 10.1% in the year 2008.

Taking the study forward and keeping last 28 years of the September month history into account, the benchmark index has generated more than 2.5% of positive returns 13 times and 7 times negative 2.5% returns.

Now What –

On August 31, 2022, the reserve Bank of India has presented GDP data, where India’s “Gross Domestic Production” recorded a growth of 13.5% during April to June period. The growth was lower than the RBI’s and economists expectation (15% growth was estimated) but far better than other developed and developing countries.

On September 1, the Finance Ministry has presented GST data, where the country collected INR 1.44 Lakh Cr as “Goods and Services Tax” in August 2022, registering an increase of 28% as compared to a year back (4% lower than July 2022 collection).

The USD/INR equation is a cause of concern for the time now.

Investors and traders’ nerves would be tested for sure as we will witness a huge volatility in this month.

We have the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the second half of the month followed by the RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting and other some events.

On the technical front, the Nifty has touched a high of 17992 on 19 August 2022 close to its long-term average of 18000.

Currently it is trading well above its short-term and long-term moving averages,

The RSI is above 60 which confirm the strength in the current momentum.

In a nutshell, if history is to go by (also keeping technical set-up in mind) chances of the NSE benchmark index delivering a positive return is likely in September 2022.

Let’s see how it works out.

#Happy Investing

Disclaimer: The contents and data presented here are just for your information & personal use only. While much effort is made to provide the information, I (Vishal Dalwadi) or “FinBlab” do not guarantee the accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability of any information or data displayed herein and shall not be held responsible.

The post How The Nifty Will Behave In September 2022: Check Now appeared first on Upcoming ipos: Latest news on stocks, economy & finance.

Many thanks to the domestic investors who stood firm against the FII selling (who turned net buyers in the last couple of days of July)

There was some other positive news as well that helped the index pos heavy gains, especially the Fed commentary (which hiked the rate by 75 basis points to curb inflation but promises to ease rake hike going forward) followed by the USD/INR equation, where INR doing a good job thanks to RBI intervention, good monsoon in the country, and better Q1 FY23 numbers posted by the Indian firms.

Also Read: IMPORTANT Q1 RESULTS FOR NEXT WEEK: 1 TO 6 AUGUST 2022

The Way Forward – August 2022 Series

Since the new series (August 2022) has just started, index, as well as options traders, would love to know where the Nifty ends at the end of the month; will it end in green again or red?

To answer this question, again, historical data will prove to be very helpful.

Last 10 Years

If we consider the last ten years’ data, starting from FY 2012 to FY 2021 (in particular the August series), it shows bulls managed to get marginally an upper hand on Dalal Street, where the Nifty fell four times and gained as many as six times.

In fact, in these 10 years, there were four instances where Nifty has given more than 2 percent of positive returns (8.7% in 2021, 2.8% in 2020, 2.9% in 2018, and 3% in 2014) and only two instances where it fell more than 2 percent (6.6% in 2015 and 5.8% in 2013).

Last 20 Years

If we stretch this study further and take twenty years of data (2002 to 2021) into consideration, history suggests that there have been at least 14 instances where the Nifty index closed in green and 6 instances closed in the red.

In these 20 years, there were 8 times where the Nifty index rose more than 2.5 percent (highest of 14.4% in Aug 2003, 8.7% in 2021, 8.6% in 2006, and 5.4% in 2002) it fell 8.8% in the year 2011.

Last 28 Years

Taking the study forward and keeping the last 28 years of the August history into account, the index has generated more than 2.5% returns 11 times and 6 times negative 2.5% returns.

Now What –

Investors and traders’ nerves would be tested in the upcoming month, especially in the first week, where we have the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) meeting on the 5th of August and some important quarterly results like ITC, Zomato, Adani Group companies, SBI, and others.

On the technical front, the Nifty has closed above its short-term and long-term moving averages, and there is a broad range intact of 14200/300 on the lower side and 18000 on the higher side.

In a nutshell, if history is to go by, the chances of the NSE benchmark index delivering a positive return is likely in August 2022 (however, there may not be as good as July 2022)

Let’s see how it works out…

Disclaimer: The contents and data presented here are just for your information & personal use only. While much effort is made to provide the information, I (Vishal Dalwadi) or “FinBlab” do not guarantee the accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability of any information or data displayed herein and shall not be held responsible.

The post HOW THE NIFTY WILL BEHAVE IN AUGUST 2022: CHECK NOW appeared first on Upcoming ipos: Latest news on stocks, economy & finance.

In fact, on the very first day, we witnessed huge volatility as far as the Nifty is concerned, which made a high of 15794 and a low of 15511.

Since the new series has started, index and options traders would love to know where the Nifty ends at the end of the month; will it end in green or red.

To answer these historical data will be very useful. If we consider the last eight years’ data it shows bulls managed to get an upper hand on Dalal Street, where the Nifty fell just once and gained seven times.

The Nifty rose 0.3 percent in the year 2021, followed by a 7.5 percent rise in 2020, and a little over 1 percent gain in the year 2014. The index rose 2 percent in 2015, 4.2 percent in 2016, 5.8 percent in 2017, and 6 percent in 2018.

However, on the down, the Nifty suffered 5.7 percent in the year 2019.

If we stretch our study further and take 20 years of data into account, history suggests that there have been at least ten instances where the Nifty index has delivered more than 4 percent return in July and only two instances when the Nifty saw a fall of over 5 percent in the same month, (9.2 down percent in the year 2002 and 5.7 percent in 2019).

Investors and traders’ nerves would be tested in the ongoing month, as companies begin disclosing first-quarter earnings that may see the maximum impact of a rise in inflation playing out.

However, there are some encouraging signs such as GST collection of June, monthly auto sales from tata motors, and good monsoon progress that would help the index going forward.

On the technical front, one should remain cautious going into the July series (preferred short-term trading range of 15,200 to 16,200), with a broad range of 14500 on the lower side and 18000 on the higher side.

In a nutshell, if history is to go by, the chances of the NSE benchmark index delivering a solid return in July 2022 are reasonable.

Disclaimer: The contents and data presented here are just for your information and personal use only. While much effort is made to provide the information, FinBlab or I (Vishal Dalwadi) do not guarantee the accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability of any information or data displayed herein and shall not be held responsible.

The post How the Nifty will behave in July 2022: Check Now appeared first on Upcoming ipos: Latest news on stocks, economy & finance.

8-JAN-2018:

After a steady start in the 1st week of 2018 (Sensex up by 96 points and Nifty up by 28 points on a weekly basis) the market was in a bullish mode on the first day of the 2nd week of 2018 – thanks to positive global cues and post GDP estimates and credit growth data. The 30-share BSE Sensex rallied 199 points to 34,353 while the 50-share NSE Nifty closed above 10,600-mark for the first time in the history, gaining 64.70 points at 10,623.60.

9-JAN-2018:

The bullish mood of the market continued on Tuesday as well. Though benchmark indices remain range bound during the session finally managed to close at a fresh new high. The 30-share BSE Sensex was up 90 points at 34,443 while the 50-share NSE Nifty rose 13.40 points to 10,637, thanks to positive global cues.

10-JAN-2018:

• After two days of rally, the Indian stock markets opened weak on Wednesday. The markets witnessed a sell-off in the first hour of trade due to a continued rally in crude oil prices and if there is an implementation of long-term capital gain taxes in Union Budget. The benchmark indices recovered in the last hour of trade thanks to the sharp rally in IT stocks. The BSE Sensex closed down 10 points at 34,433 while the NSE Nifty fell for the first time in last seven sessions, ending down 5 points at 10,632.
• Today the Cabinet has approved key changes in India’s foreign direct investment (FDI) policy by easing investment norms in the sectors including single-brand retail, construction, and aviation. The cabinet today approved 100% FDI in single-brand retail via automatic route, 100% FDI in construction under automatic route and investment up to 49% under approval route in Air India and allowed FIIs/FPIs to invest in power exchanges via the primary market.

10-JAN-2018:

• The Indian stock markets closed higher on Thursday after consolidation, with the Nifty holding 10,650 for the first time. The BSE Sensex was up 70 points at 34,503 and the NSE Nifty gained 19 points at 10,651.
• Indian IT major Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has declared its Q3 FY18 results post market hours, wherein the company’s Profit during the quarter increased to INR 6,531 Cr from INR 6,446 Cr in previous quarter, while Revenue in rupee terms grew by 1.2% to INR 30,904 Cr and dollar revenue rose 1% to USD 4,787 million compared to September quarter.

10-JAN-2018:

• The Friday’s trading session was a volatile one. The BSE Sensex falls more than 150 points when the areas of concern flagged by the 4 senior judges of the Supreme Court show that there is some kind of a connection between some people in the ruling government and some judges. The markets, however, gets stabilized and closed on a positive note. The BSE Sensex was up by 89 points while the NSE Nifty closed up by 30 points.
• India’s second-largest software services provider Infosys has declared its Q3 FY18 results post market hours, the Company has reported profit growth of 37.7% at INR 5,129 Cr for the quarter against INR 3,726 Cr reported in the previous quarter due to lower tax expenses. The IT firm has maintained its full-year constant currency revenue growth guidance at 5.5% to 6.5% and EBIT margin at 23% to 25%.

Snapshot A Week Gone By

Future Outlook:

The second week of 2018 also ended on a positive note. Though the mood the market is positive, the momentum clearly suggests that the market may be pricing in likely recovery in corporate earnings for December quarter and the Union Budget, which will be presented on 1st February 2018. It is also very interesting to how the market will react on Monday to the two of the most important data came on the Friday evening; where one is positive and one is negative.

• India’s industrial output (IIP) hit a 25-month in November, jumped to 8.4% YOY against 2.2% in October 2017, led by robust growth in manufacturing, as well as inventory rebuilding after the festive season.
• The CPI Inflation, a measure of retail inflation, rose to 5.21% YOY in December 2017, 17 months high, due to rising food inflation and fuel inflation.

Link – Weekly Review

Disclaimer: The contents and data presented here are just for your information & personal use only. While much effort is made to provide the information, I ( Vishal Dalwadi ) or “Fin Blab” do not guarantee the accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability of any information or data displayed herein and shall not be held responsible.

The post Finblab Research: Indian Stock Market Weekly review appeared first on Upcoming ipos: Latest news on stocks, economy & finance.

• 1-JAN-2018: After decent returns in 2017; (Nifty 28%) and (SENSEX 27%) the markets open with a week note on the very first day of 2018. Though the benchmark indices remained range bound in the first-half, heavy selling from the Foreign Investors in the second-half drag both the Sensex and Nifty down and closed with a negative mark on the 1st day.
• 2-JAN-2018: Benchmark indices closed range bound session on a flat note but the markets corrected further on profit booking for a 2nd consecutive session Tuesday. The BSE Sensex fell more than 100 points in the afternoon on weak European cues but managed to recover in late trade to close flat. The BSE index was down 0.49 points while the 50-share NSE Nifty gained 6.70 points at 10,442.20.
• 3-JAN-2018: Benchmark equity indices opened on a positive note on the 3rd day following gains in the US. Again, a selloff in the last hour of trade led to benchmark indices giving up all their gains and ending on a flat note. At the close of market hours, the Sensex was down 18.88 points, and the Nifty ended higher by 1.00 points.
• 4-JAN-2018: The Thursday session began on a mildly higher note, but benchmark indices soon picked up pace after the Finance Ministry said that a Parliament nod will be sought to issue recap bonds to the tune of Rs 80,000 crore. A huge rally in PSU banks and metals stocks helps both the indices to close on a firm Positive note for the very first time in 2018. The Sensex closed up 176.26 points, while the Nifty was up by 61.60 points.
• 5-JAN-2018: The Indian stock markets extended gains for the 2nd consecutive day on Friday as both the SENSEX and the NIFTY ended at fresh record closing high. The rally in the market was mainly driven by three factors; (1) positive global cues, (2) hopes that the government may be meeting its fiscal deficit target of 3.2% of GDP, and (3) the report by rating agency Fitch stating that India will be fastest growing economy over the next 5 years.

Snapshot A Week Gone By

Future Outlook:

The first week of 2018 ended on a positive note and the trend is likely to continue in the next week as well. Though the GDP data the comes in after the market hours on Friday from the Centre declares that India will likely grow at 6.5% in 2017-18, slower than the previous year’s 7.1% could spoil the market mood on Monday’s trade but not likely to have a big impact as such. The big event that the market is eyeing at this moment is the Q3 results which will start after the 2nd week of January. It is likely that Q3 earnings to be better than Q2FY18 and the Budget to be more populist one.

Disclaimer: The contents and data presented here are just for your information & personal use only. While much effort is made to provide the information, I ( Vishal Dalwadi ) or “Fin Blab” do not guarantee the accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability of any information or data displayed herein and shall not be held responsible.

The post Finblab Research: Indian Stock Market Weekly review appeared first on Upcoming ipos: Latest news on stocks, economy & finance.